AI automation of tasks is estimated to produce modest aggregate gains of no more than 0.66% TFP growth over 10 years based on task exposure and task-level cost savings.
This peer-reviewed paper models AI's macroeconomic impact as task-level automation and complementarity, using Hulten's theorem to translate the fraction of tasks impacted and average cost savings into GDP and TFP effects. Using existing exposure estimates, it calculates no more than a 0.66% TFP increase over 10 years, then revises down to less than 0.53% after accounting for the shift from easy-to-learn to hard-to-learn tasks.
- Impact 30%
- 63
- Evidence 25%
- 95
- Scale 20%
- 35
- Confidence 15%
- 87
- Recency 10%
- 84
Updated Jul 20, 2026 · TRV-2026-0378
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