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Business·P Space·Evidence-backed problem·Published 2026-09-21

More Australians will be dying than being born in 40 years as major report predicts future of lower growth

Abstract: There will be more Australians dying than being born in 40 years’ time, according to the government’s latest intergenerational report, which lays bare the fundamental challenges of managing an ageing population at a time of rapid change and lower economic growth. The country’s seventh IGR also outlines how Australia is at the cusp of a new and uncertain age of artificial intelligence that will shape the economy and society over the coming four decades. Jim Chalmers, in a speech at the Australian National Univers…

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More Australians will be dying than being born in 40 years as major report predicts future of lower growth
The quick read

There will be more Australians dying than being born in 40 years’ time, according to the government’s latest intergenerational report, which lays bare the fundamental challenges of managing an ageing population at a time of rapid change and lower economic growth. The country’s seventh IGR also outlines how Australia is at the cusp of a new and uncertain age of artificial intelligence that will shape the economy and society over the coming four decades.

With the population set to grow by 0.9% for the foreseeable future, versus 1.4% historically, alongside a shrinking share of working Australians to support activity and the budget, the IGR predicts the economy has entered into a new normal of lower growth. Real GDP on a per person basis will expand by about 1.2% over the next 40 years, down from 1.5% in the previous four decades, the IGR shows.

Main points
  • There will be more Australians dying than being born in 40 years’ time, according to the government’s latest intergenerational report, which lays bare the fundamental challenges of managing an ageing population at a time of rapid change and lower economic growth.
  • The country’s seventh IGR also outlines how Australia is at the cusp of a new and uncertain age of artificial intelligence that will shape the economy and society over the coming four decades.
  • Jim Chalmers, in a speech at the Australian National University to coincide with the release of the analysis, said “this intergenerational report illuminates the road ahead”.
Problem

Even that relatively dour outlook depends on productivity picking back up from virtually zero in recent years to the historical average of 1.2%, an assumption that leans heavily on AI, or what Chalmers described as “the biggest economic transformation of our lifetime”.

The rundown

Jim Chalmers, in a speech at the Australian National University to coincide with the release of the analysis, said “this intergenerational report illuminates the road ahead”. “No previous IGR has contended with global challenges this great, with politics this fraught, or a future less certain.

Sources

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