aceCan AI really predict cancer survival better than a doctor? I have my doubts | Devi Sridhar
The idea that a single selfie could predict how long someone with cancer may live sounds like an incredible breakthrough. AI is getting better at spotting patterns in medical data, but can it be used to reliably predict what will happen to an individual patient? I asked a clinical colleague what she thought about the recent headlines. She found it an interesting development given that doctors have long used facial appearance to assess patient health. For example, she noted that they may write “appears stated age…
An AI model trained on facial images found AI-estimated facial age significantly associated with survival in 18 of 28 cancer categories, suggesting it could add prognostic information beyond a doctor's visual impression.
The facial-age measure was not significantly associated with survival for Black patients after adjustment, and selfie variability, cosmetic changes and retrospective design limit reliable individual prediction.
The tool has not been tested against doctors' own judgments or across different hospitals and patient groups, and the models rely on retrospective associations rather than proven clinical usefulness.
Evidence
- JournalismThe Guardian2026-10-23
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Truvace Impact Record TRV-2026-2219, v1: “Can AI really predict cancer survival better than a doctor? I have my doubts | Devi Sridhar.” Truvace, 2026-10-23. /record/TRV-2026-2219 (accessed at citation time). sha256 6b916e6e6132bb91…
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