aceTreatment-Effect-Based Versus Risk-Based Targeting of Care Management Outreach in Medicaid: A Retrospective Cohort Study with Machine Learning
Medicaid care-management programs typically allocate scarce outreach capacity to beneficiaries with the highest predicted risk of an acute event, assuming that risk and responsiveness are aligned and stable across short intervals. The authors tested whether targeting outreach by predicted individualized treatment effect-the conditional average treatment effect (CATE) recomputed each calendar month-outperforms risk-based targeting. The authors analyzed 164,063 adult Medicaid beneficiaries (2,670,806 person-months…
Monthly allocation of Medicaid care-management outreach by predicted individualized treatment effect prevented substantially more ED visits or hospital admissions than risk-based allocation at the same 10% capacity.
Evidence
- Peer-reviewedPopulation Health Management2026-07-24
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Truvace Impact Record TRV-2026-0571, v1: “Treatment-Effect-Based Versus Risk-Based Targeting of Care Management Outreach in Medicaid: A Retrospective Cohort Study with Machine Learning.” Truvace, 2026-07-26. /record/TRV-2026-0571 (accessed at citation time). sha256 733bdc4fd01bcf5d…
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