aceenvironmental footprint of AI server deployment in the United States from 2024 to 2030
Source article: Environmental impact and net-zero pathways for sustainable artificial intelligence servers in the USA
The rapidly increasing demand for generative artificial intelligence (AI) models requires extensive server installation with sustainability implications in terms of the compound energy–water–climate impacts. Here we show that the deployment of AI servers across the United States could generate an annual water footprint ranging from 731 to 1,125 million m3 and additional annual carbon emissions from 24 to 44 Mt CO2-equivalent between 2024 and 2030, depending on the scale of expansion. Other factors, such as indus…
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Published November 10 2025 in Nature Sustainability, the study models the sustainability implications of rapidly expanding generative AI server installations across the United States, projecting annual water and carbon footprints through 2030 and testing mitigation options.
The findings matter because they translate AI growth into measurable resource pressures and show that meeting corporate net-zero aspirations will require more than offsets, with remaining uncertainty about how fast grids decarbonize, where servers are built, and whether best practices can be deployed at scale given current infrastructure.
- Study quantifies US AI server deployment impacts as 731 to 1,125 million m3 annual water footprint and 24 to 44 Mt CO2-equivalent additional annual carbon emissions between 2024 and 2030.
- Best-practice mitigation could reduce emissions by up to 73% and water use by up to 86%, but is limited by current energy infrastructure.
- Authors find net-zero by 2030 unlikely without heavy reliance on uncertain carbon offsets and water restoration, and point to clean energy potential in Midwestern states.
Adopting best practices for AI servers in the USA could cut projected carbon emissions by up to 73% and water footprints by up to 86% between 2024 and 2030.
Large-scale deployment of AI servers across the United States is projected to create 731 to 1,125 million m3 of annual water use and 24 to 44 Mt CO2-equivalent of additional annual carbon emissions between 2024 and 2030, jeopardizing net-zero goals.
The rundown
The peer-reviewed analysis models US AI server growth from 2024 to 2030, estimating annual impacts of 731-1,125 million m3 water and 24-44 Mt CO2e depending on expansion scale, with variation driven by efficiency, grid decarbonization, and siting.
It evaluates net-zero pathways, finding that even with best practices that could cut emissions up to 73% and water up to 86%, infrastructure constraints and dependence on uncertain offsets and restoration make 2030 net-zero unlikely, prompting calls for coordinated private and regulatory action and leveraging Midwestern clean energy.
Projections carry deep uncertainties from efficiency initiatives, grid decarbonization rates, and where servers are sited, and mitigation effectiveness is limited by existing energy infrastructure and reliance on uncertain offsets.
Sources
- Peer-reviewedNature Sustainability2025-11-10
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