Generating a 1000-Member Ensemble of Integrated Water Vapor Transport Forecasts with Diffusion

Abstract Ensemble weather predictions can be critical toward making informed decisions for operations that require risk assessment. The traditional approach toward creating an ensemble often involves making slight perturbations to initial conditions and model numerical solvers and physics to account for forecast uncertainty. This study instead uses diffusion, a form of generative artificial intelligence (AI), to make ensemble forecasts consisting of 1000 members from single-member deterministic dynamical Western…