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The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel
- Truvace record
- TRV-2026-2505raw data (JSON)
- Version
- v1Published
- First published
- Evidence type
- Observational studyPreprint, not yet peer reviewed
- Sources
- 1 sourcePeer-reviewed
- sha256
- fdd0370d33e7…check it
We measure how artificial intelligence (AI) affects the economy through its impact on software engineering productivity. We use information from financial markets to develop a forward-looking measure that is available in real time. We estimate the sensitivity of each firm’s stock return to an AI stock market index, and how this sensitivity depends on the share of firm payroll in software engineering. We use a model to map this cross-sectional relationship into software engineering productivity gains. From Novemb…
The gain
In a working paper using stock-return data, economists estimate that AI news from November 2022 to December 2025 raised markets' expected value of software engineering productivity by the equivalent of a permanent 32.6% increase, implying a 3.6% higher GDP level.
What this doesn’t fix
The estimate reflects what financial markets expect, and the authors say that view is unlikely to be perfectly accurate. The Revelio resume data also over-represents management and computer occupations.
Sources
1 on file- NBER Working Paperdoi:10.3386/w35793
Cite this record
v1Truvace Impact Record TRV-2026-2505, v1: “The Macroeconomic Effect of AI: Sizing the Software Engineering Channel.” Truvace, 2026-11-12. /record/TRV-2026-2505 (accessed on the day you copy it). sha256 fdd0370d33e773e0…
Change history
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