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Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity
- Truvace record
- TRV-2026-2496raw data (JSON)
- Version
- v1Published
- First published
- Evidence type
- Observational studyPreprint, not yet peer reviewed
- Sources
- 1 sourcePeer-reviewed
- sha256
- 37c6ba21e093…check it
Using generative AI, we extract managers’ economic expectations from over 120,000 corporate conference call transcripts. The resulting AI Economy Score predicts GDP growth, production, employment, and wages five or more quarters ahead, beyond survey forecasts and other existing measures. Industry- and firm-level scores capture sector- and firm-specific activity, and a composite of firm, industry, and macroeconomic expectations further improves forecasting power and horizon. Predictability concentrates among hist…
The gain
In a working paper analysing 125,830 earnings calls, an AI-derived score of manager optimism raised the share of next-quarter GDP growth explained from 43.8% to 48.6% and kept predicting GDP for five quarters.
What this doesn’t fix
The authors say that telling the model the call date does not eliminate look-ahead bias, since its training data extend past that point, and the score failed to anticipate the early-2020 pandemic collapse.
Sources
1 on file- NBER Working Paperdoi:10.3386/w35949
Cite this record
v1Truvace Impact Record TRV-2026-2496, v1: “Generative AI, Managerial Expectations, and Economic Activity.” Truvace, 2026-11-12. /record/TRV-2026-2496 (accessed on the day you copy it). sha256 37c6ba21e0935c09…
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