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Field experiments with millions of shoppers show AI lifted online sales by up to 16.3%

Study title: Generative Artificial Intelligence and Sales Productivity: Field Experiments in Online Retail

Evidence type
Randomized controlled trial
Sources
1 sourcePeer-reviewed
Published
2 min read
Truvace record
TRV-2026-2491cite or check it

Study title: Generative Artificial Intelligence and Sales Productivity: Field Experiments in Online Retail

A series of randomized field experiments at a leading cross-border online retail platform tested generative AI across seven business workflows in 2023 and 2024, covering customer service, consumer-product matching, advertising and seller services. Sales rose in most workflows, by as much as 16.3% in the best case, while some workflows showed no detectable effect.

Read the study abstract

We quantify the short-term impact of generative artificial intelligence (GenAI) on sales performance through a series of large-scale randomized field experiments involving millions of users and products at a leading crossborder online retail platform. Over 2023–2024, the platform integrated GenAI into seven business workflows spanning customer service, consumer-product matching, advertising, and seller services. We find that GenAI adoption increases sales in most workflows, with effects ranging from no detectabl…

The gain

In randomized field experiments with millions of users at a cross-border online retailer, generative AI raised sales by up to 16.3% in most of seven workflows, worth roughly $5 per consumer a year across the four that worked.

In brief

Across the four AI applications with positive sales effects, the authors estimate an incremental value of roughly $5 per consumer per year. They describe that as meaningful given the retailer's scale and the early stage of adoption.

The gains came mainly from higher conversion rates rather than bigger cart values. Product return rates and customer ratings did not worsen, and less experienced consumers gained more than experienced ones.

Main points

  1. The experiments involved millions of users and products at a leading cross-border online retail platform.
  2. The platform integrated generative AI into seven business workflows over 2023–2024.
  3. Sales effects ranged from no detectable impact to 16.3%, depending on how much AI added over existing firm practices.
  4. The four workflows with positive effects imply roughly $5 in incremental annual value per consumer.
  5. Gains came through higher conversion rates rather than larger cart values.
  6. Return rates and customer ratings did not deteriorate.
  7. Consumers with less experience saw larger gains than experienced shoppers.

The full story

The study used randomized field experiments, which allows causal claims about the effect of generative AI on sales. It ran inside a real retail platform rather than in a lab, across customer service, consumer-product matching, advertising and seller services.

Results varied by workflow. The size of the effect depended on the marginal contribution of AI relative to what the firm already did, so some uses produced no detectable lift while the strongest reached 16.3%.

The authors link the conversion gains to lower search, information, communication and personalization frictions. Because returns and ratings held steady, the added sales do not appear to come at the cost of worse purchase outcomes.

Sources

1 on file
  1. Management Sciencedoi:10.1287/mnsc.2026.00623
    Peer-reviewed2026-11-06

Talk it over

Four questions to start onWho gets this benefit, and who was left out of the study or story?

Start with a question

Field experiments with millions of shoppers show AI lifted online sales by up to 16.3%https://truvace.com/item/generative-artificial-intelligence-and-sales-productivity-field-experiments-in-o

  1. Who gets this benefit, and who was left out of the study or story?

    The gain In randomized field experiments with millions of users at a cross-border online retailer, generative AI raised sales by up to 16.3% in most of seven workflows, worth roughly $5 per consumer a year across the four that worked.

    Answer in the thread

  2. How do we know? What can this kind of evidence show, and what can’t it?

    The evidence This rests on a randomized controlled trial, from Management Science.

    Answer in the thread

  3. What does it leave open? What else would you want to know before acting on it?

    The record’s own caveat The study measures only short-term effects at one cross-border retailer, and some of the seven AI workflows showed no detectable sales impact.

    Answer in the thread

  4. Have you seen AI used this way where you study, work or live? Did it go the same way?

    Answer in the thread

The questions are the same on every record. The details under them are taken from this record as written.

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