18-study review shows robots cut routine manual work, lifted analytical tasks in rich nations

The effect on total employment was slightly negative but not statistically significant (Hedges' g = -0.155, 95% CI -0.323 to 0.013, p = 0.070, seven studies). The shifts showed up by task type: in developed economies, robot use cut employment in routine manual tasks and raised it in non-routine analytical tasks, while developing economies showed no significant effect for any task type.

The authors conclude that technology reshapes jobs more than it removes them and call for policies tailored to each country and sector. The pooled studies differ widely in method and the results varied a lot between them, so the figures describe an average across very different studies.

The authors searched Web of Science, Scopus and Google Scholar plus grey literature, following PRISMA guidelines. They found 1,874 records, removed 423 duplicates and screened 1,451 titles and abstracts. They then read 142 full texts and kept 18 studies, with two independent reviewers at each stage and a third resolving disagreements. Included studies had to be in English, published 2015 to 2024, and contain quantitative data on automation risk, employment or skills.

Studies were scored 1 to 5 on five quality criteria and analysed with random-effects models in Comprehensive Meta-Analysis software. Heterogeneity was high in every category (I² of 99.4% for automation risk, 82.18% for employment and 98.9% for skills). Funnel plots, Egger tests and trim-and-fill tests found no significant publication bias.

The automation-risk estimates pooled five studies: Frey and Osborne, Arntz and colleagues, Nedelkoska and Quintini, Hawksworth and colleagues, and Manyika and colleagues. Meta-regression with four moderators explained 83.4% of the variation between them. The authors read the task-based results as a sign that technology tends to automate specific tasks rather than whole occupations.

On skills, six studies were reviewed but only four could be pooled, because the IFR report is qualitative and the Fossen and Sorgner study is focused on entrepreneurship. The authors recommend country-specific strategies, training in both technical and social-emotional skills, support for new kinds of jobs and gradual management of workforce transitions.